Maybe yes, maybe no.
Here is an update of a graph that originally appeared last April 25 on Hoofin at this post. It was one of my more popular posts, although you have to study it. It got 16 comments.
Sometimes it helps if you double-click on these images, because I am not sure if the detail comes out very clearly on the different size screens people use.
I am conveying six pieces of information there. (Last year was four.)
The prominent blue line is the revenue per class. Based on what METI says is the overall revenue in Eikaiwa, divided by the number of classes held that month, you get this number. It’s says nothing about the Flyjin, but it does show you that once Nova collapsed, all their cut rate deals and frauds stopped driving the number up and down so violently.
There is only one number series, so it would be a number graphed against Japanese yen, right?
The pink line at the bottom is the number of outlets, that I take to be either sole proprietorships, or locations if it is a chain Eikaiwa. Not a lot of change there and nothing about the Flyjin. There are a little over 3,000 of these outlets.
The yellow line is students in 100’s. So METI is saying there is something like 300,000 students. (Yellow line graphed to 3,000 would be 3000 times 100 or three hundred thousand. OK?)
If that number has a dip, it will tell you that the earthquake may have affected people’s signing up and taking classes.
The turquoise line is the number of classes, in 100’s. So there was a big drop with Nova, but notice that the line has been moving down, really, for the last three years. This one should show a dip.
A fifth series, which is new, is just running through the blue revenue line to show you what a 12-month average on the money would be.
The final line, in brown, is the series of “Instructors” from the METI data. I didn’t care about this last year, because I was talking about money. But this year, the focus is on Flyjins. So there are about 9,000 potential Flyjins.
If 9,000 “good” gaijins are available to fill any spots that open, then this little test is for naught. It could be that the Permanent Residents from Canada and Australia (as well as the States), who seem to have a lock on where the teaching jobs are, and control the information like its their own little financial empire, will make sure that there are enough Instructors to fill any void.
My early betting chips are on the notion that the Flyjin phenomenon is bullshit. A handful of people left, and those who have their thing going in Japan, and couldn’t just pick up and go, saw a way to score a few brownie points with the natives. But like you, I want facts.