I have a feeling that the President is going to pull this one out. Since the first debate, I changed my mind about the Johnson-Goldwater scenario. But I still see Obama being able to win enough states to make the 270.
The nightmare scenario, of course, is the credible tie:
A result like this would throw the election into the House of Representatives (where the 2000 election, in fact, should have been fought out). As I was saying the other day, each state’s delegation would get one vote. Since there will likely be more one-rep, Republican states, Romney would win.
The folks who are painting the Obama electoral college win feel that he will pick up one other state in this tie scenario, by a narrow margin. Overall, Romney might win the popular vote—especially with all the knee-jerk Southern whites going for him. But he will not have enough support in the various regions of America to become President.
All Presidents win in the Electoral College. It’s just a question of whether they carried a popular vote majority while they did it.