Will Obama win, even if not winning the popular vote? Nate Silver has this as 6.5% likely.

Per today’s FiveThirtyEight on the New York Times.

When they talk about Obama’s firewall, part of it is the fact that he can lose big in certain areas of the country, and still pull out a win. Wouldn’t it be something, if 2012 makes up for 2000? Turnabout, you know.

[Update: Here is the Times’ Swing State Tracker. Very nice.]